Wednesday, February 27, 2013

Asean Strategy and Leadership Institute - YAB Pehin Sri Abdul Taib Mahmud akan mendapat kejayaan 100% Pilihanraya Parlimen

YB Datuk Amar Abang Abdul Rahman Zohari Tun Openg bangsawan setia kepada Taib Mahmud dan Sarawak
YB Datuk Patinggi Tan Sri Alfred Jabu Anak Numpang, Ketua Paramount Dayak setia kepada Taib Mahmud dan Sarawak

Datuk Seri Effendi Norwawi ready to fight for Sarawak and Taib Mahmud
YB Datuk Sri Douglas Uggah Embas setia kepada Taib Mahmud dan Sarawak
YB Datuk Wahab Dollah setia kepada Taib Mahmud dan Sarawak
YB Datuk Norah Tun Rahman, setia kepada sepupu Taib Mahmud dan Sarawak

BN expected to win GE13, says think tank ASLI in analysis

The Asian Strategy and Leadership Institute (ASLI), a private think tank, says the ruling Barisan Nasional (BN) will win the 13th General Election (GE13) and that much of the support among rural Malays, which was absent in 2008, has returned to Umno and Barisan Nasional (BN).

In its analysis presented yesterday, ASLI said BN is expected to win 123 to 135 seats in the next elections on this basis, but could reach as high as 150 if Prime Minister Datuk Seri Mohd Najib Razak can attract Indian and undecided Chinese voters as well.

“From my interpretation of the research if the swing of Malay rural voters to Umno is strong then the battle for rural Malay votes will favour BN.

"The coming election will basically be decided by rural voters in rural constituencies,” ASLI’s chief executive officer/director Tan Sri Dr Michael Yeoh Oon Khing told The Malaysian Reserve in an email interview yesterday.

“Nevertheless, what can be certain is that the two big winners in the coming elections that are expected to be on April 14 or 21, 2013, will be Umno and the Democratic Action Party (DAP).”

Dr Yeoh said trends showed Indian rural and semi-urban voters have shifted back to BN while urban voters of all races are still with the opposition.

Undecided voters would pay close attention to choice of candidates and how the campaign unfolds to make their choice.

ASLI says it is confident that Tan Sri Taib Mahmud would deliver 100% of Parti Pesaka Bumiputera seats, giving the majority to win Sarawak while it is confident that Umno should do well in Sabah, leading BN to regain control of the state government.

The analysis said the Pakatan Rakyat coalition should retain Kelantan and Penang, but BN could regain Penang if there is solid Malay backing and if the MCA and Gerakan could win just four more seats.

ASLI is neutral on Selangor, saying that the battle for that state would be the toughest. It is confident on BN winning Kedah and Perak on the back of support from the Malay swingback to Umno, adding that DAP will still hold on to its Chinese majority seats in Perak.

The report ended by presenting scenarios of post election realignment possibilities; such as Umno and Parti Islam Malaysia (PAS) or Umno and DAP.

The analysis was done based on telephone interviews and discussions with different groups as well as other surveys done by other researchers, said Dr Yeoh, adding that the demographics are broad based covering different ages and ethnic groups.

In a related news, an online media highlighted a Morgan Stanley Research report that said: “If the ruling BN loses by winning less than 50% of the seats up for grabs, investors would likely see this as a ‘negative risk event’.”

It added that BN losing would affect leadership and government stability thereby “postponing the reform agenda undertaken by the country in the near term until political stability is restored.”

1 comment:

  1. Projek Tengah KM 2013February 28, 2013 at 2:59 PM

    Betul ini semua pemimpin-pemimpin yang setia kepada Taib Mahmud. Namun semua sedang proses di buang oleh group Tengah. Dalam Fasa 2 Projek Tengah KM 2013 groupnya mahu membuangkan beberapa MP PBB. Tidak kira samada dalam usaha group Tengah untuk sabotaj MP-MP PBB itu maka BN mungkin kalah kerusi. Bagi Tengah lagi kurang kerusi parlimen BN maka PM lagi 'desperate' dan 'terpaksa berunding' dengannya yang dalam proses membeli ramai ADUN dan MP.